Monday 20 July 2009

Can't live without it, but can't live with it (in my portfolio).

The Internet Is Dead… well as an Investment.


I can spend the whole day on the Internet and it would be a day well spent. I can chat, listen to music, watch videos, study, trade stocks, play games, do work - all on the Internet and I believe that its true for almost everybody in my generation. But still when it comes to getting advertisements(revenues) on the Internet, even big names scramble to find a few.


To share a few stories: Microsoft has spent zillions on Internet strategy without a single ray of hope. Every other day Yahoo is closing some of its offering, today it was geocities. Even Google finds it difficult to introduce any other business model other than the one they stumbled upon when they bought Applied Semantics in 2001 that had a little piece of software called AdSense. Google's flagships- Gmail, Youtube, Orkut, Google Earth are all bleeding. Time Warner would rather keep their legacy old media businesses than hold onto one of the biggest Internet companies out there, AOL. News Corporation is shaking up its MySpace business as it figures out its next steps. And the new business in the block: Twitter and Facebook are still struggling for profits despite exponential usage growth

Don't just ask me. Ask the best – Warren Buffet. Nobody can figure out a business model.

Gone are the days of infinite margins, 1000% productivity gains, and growth of market throughout the universe. Internet companies are, at best, like utility companies albeit the only difference being that they get bought at about 10 times earnings and sold at 13 times earnings.

Let's face it. Electricity greatly improved our quality of life. But we are not going to get excited about buying a basket of utility companies. Now, the same applies to the the Internet. Can't live without it, but can't live with it (in my portfolio).