Demographics is often an under -appreciated determinant of the fates of countries. Certainly the baby boomer generation in the U.S., the rapidly aging population of Japan andthe outright declines of Russia's population all have a tremendous long-term impact on their respective countries.
China will need to deal with the long-term consequences of its one-child rule, both the lack of youngsters, and the lack of young females (how do you manage a bunch of single, young males with no prospects of marrying and raising a family? That is, outside of starting a war to reduce their ranks?)
With regards to return on capital investments, it has been frequently pointed out that India, with about half the GDP of China, manages to get about 75% of China's growth rate with about 1/10th the foreign capital investment. Soon people might start to wonder which country is a better investment.
And of course, perhaps the biggest question mark is the stability of China's political system, which is facing stresses and pressure to change despite achieving stunning growth for its people for the past few decades. What happens to the communists when they get their first recession? Perhaps they should ask Suharto in Indonesia what economic crises tend to do to authoritarian governments.
So I agree that China, despite achieving impressive goals in the past few decades, has difficult challenges ahead. And I wouldn't be surprised if it stumbles over one or the other of them.
China will need to deal with the long-term consequences of its one-child rule, both the lack of youngsters, and the lack of young females (how do you manage a bunch of single, young males with no prospects of marrying and raising a family? That is, outside of starting a war to reduce their ranks?)
With regards to return on capital investments, it has been frequently pointed out that India, with about half the GDP of China, manages to get about 75% of China's growth rate with about 1/10th the foreign capital investment. Soon people might start to wonder which country is a better investment.
And of course, perhaps the biggest question mark is the stability of China's political system, which is facing stresses and pressure to change despite achieving stunning growth for its people for the past few decades. What happens to the communists when they get their first recession? Perhaps they should ask Suharto in Indonesia what economic crises tend to do to authoritarian governments.
So I agree that China, despite achieving impressive goals in the past few decades, has difficult challenges ahead. And I wouldn't be surprised if it stumbles over one or the other of them.
